Can You Handle the Heat
Hot weather can be uncomfortable. But it also noticeably impacts behavior and economic output.
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With summer about to enter into full swing in the Northern Hemisphere, the first heatwaves are already being announced. Beyond the health risks posed by extreme heat, high temperatures also make us uncomfortable. But how does that translate into things such as behavior, decision making and work productivity? Let’s find out.
Heat and Retaliation
Hotter temperatures have been shown via various psychology studies to increase aggression in controlled laboratory experiments (Anderson, Anderson, Dorr, DeNeve, Flanagan, 2000). However, experiments under such controlled laboratory conditions do not always translate well into real life situations. Thus, studies on real events can offer some better insights on the impacts of heat.
Larrick, Timmerman, Carton and Abrevaya (2011) looked into how higher temperatures may impact the decision of baseball pitchers to throw a ball at the batting player. In baseball, pitchers throw a hard ball in the direction of the batter at speeds up to 90 miles per hour (140 km/h). Given the accuracy baseball pitchers have with their throws, there’s significant ambiguity whenever a pitcher directly hits the batter – did the pitcher miss or did he intend to hit the player.Â
The reason this ambiguity matters is due to an unwritten rule in baseball of ‘retributive justice’. If a pitcher is believed to have intentionally thrown the ball at your teammate, then one of the opposing team’s batters must also be hit.1 Although the rules of baseball impose an official penalty for hitting a batter, these retaliations do unofficially occur.Â
The question Larrick et al. set out to answer is whether the likelihood of retaliation increases when the weather is hotter. The reason why higher temperatures may increase aggression are two-fold:
Higher temperatures make it more likely a person interprets that an event was intentionally hostile (i.e. the pitcher threw the ball at the batter intentionally rather than by accident).
If a person assumes that an event was intentionally hostile, higher temperatures increase the probability that this aggressive event needs to be punished in a more aggressive way (i.e. the pitcher of the team whose batter got hit, is more likely to throw the ball intentionally at the opposing batter in retribution).
Larrick et al. found that temperature does increase retaliation and even compounds the likelihood of retaliation. As the chart below shows, when temperatures rise, the mean probability of a retaliation goes up by about 20% to 50% (for example, after 3 batters were hit, the probability of a retaliation goes from 0.8% to 1.2%, or 50% higher, when temperatures go from 59F (15C) to 90F (32C)).Â
Cumulatively, this tells us that if a batter gets hit in the first inning, the probability the opposing pitcher will hit your teammate over the course of the game goes up from 22% to 27% when temperatures go up from 55F (12C) to 95F (35C).
Heat, Work and Elite Performance
High temperatures have been shown to have an adverse impact on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and overall economic output. One cause for this reduced output, especially in developing countries, is that extreme weather events have significant negative impacts on agriculture production, as it damages crops (Dell, Jones and Olken, 2012). Dell, Jones and Olken also found that high temperatures adversely impact industrial output and political stability.
Another way high temperatures impact production and work is by potentially altering the ability of workers to work productively. Somanathan, Somanathan, Sudarshan and Tewari (2014) looked at worker productivity and attendance in a select number of firms across India in the garment, steel rolling and diamond cutting industries. Somanathan et al. collected specific data on daily output at factories, along with worker absenteeism. Since many of these plants have limited climate control, days with higher temperatures will be felt by workers. Somanathan et al. found that output falls by about 4% to 9% for each degree above 27C (80F). Moreover, every additional day temperatures remain elevated, work absenteeism goes up by 1% to 2%.Â
Tennis Players
What about people in high-wage settings? Burke, Tanutama, Heft-Neal, Hino and Lobell (2023) looked at how higher temperatures impact professional tennis players. By studying over 15,000 matches, Burke et al. found that tennis players make 10% more double faults (miss their serve twice in row) when playing in 35C (95F) than when playing in 15C (59F). This equates to about a 0.5% decline in ‘productivity’ per degree. Moreover, in hotter matches, players retire more frequently, play shorter rallies (number of hits of the ball per point) and run less in a match.Â
It is difficult to assess whether heat impacts the winning probability, since heat affects both players in a match. One way Burke et al. tried to address this question was by looking whether high temperatures in a previous match impact the win probability in the next match. If one player played a previous match in cooler temperatures, say 20C (68F), while their opponent played in 35C (95F), the temperature differential would be 15C (27F). Burke et al. did find an effect, albeit minor, about 0.1% lower probability of winning per 1 degree differential between the players.Â
Additionally, and what may be the most important finding, Burke et al. showed that the best players do not appear to be affected by temperature, unlike lower ranked players. In part, this may be driven by the fact that the top players may have access to the best methods to deal with heat related issues after the match – for example, physical therapy, massages and cryotherapy chambers. What this may mean is that heat and rising temperatures can exacerbate inequality – individuals with resources are able to cope with the heat better and be more productive than people that have fewer resources.
High Income vs Low Income Roles
The two studies described above demonstrate the unequal impact of extreme temperatures on people in different parts of the income distribution. The Burke et al. study on high skill tennis players shows that the impact of temperature can be mitigated. On the other hand, the Somanathan et al. study shows that for many lower income individuals, mitigating the impacts of heat is not possible. This can potentially further exacerbate inequality. High temperature reduces the productivity of low income earners, and therefore reduces their incomes. On the other hand, high income earners can deal with the effects of heat (air conditioning and access to better treatment methods) and not be impacted by the negative effects of high temperature. These contrasting outcomes can increase the inequality between high income and low income roles.
High Temperatures, Crime and Judicial System
High temperatures also impact crime. Interestingly, the effect of heat is not that simple – high temperatures both reduce and increase crime. The reason for this is that humans are more likely to respond aggressively when feeling hot, but also, humans attempt to avoid the heat when it is hot outside. This means that people are less likely to be outside during hot days. Thus, during the day, crime can actually fall on hot days. Cohn and Rotton (1997) found this pattern regarding assaults – during the day assaults are lower. But during the night, higher temperatures are associated with more assault. The exact mechanism between temperature and higher assaults is not precisely established, but part of it can be explained by higher alcohol consumption at night during hotter evenings.Â
Higher temperatures were also studied in the context of judge decision making. Heyes and Saberian (2019) looked at 207,000 immigration court cases. Heyes and Saberian found that with temperatures higher by 10F (5C) compared to average annual temperatures, the judges are 6.5% less likely to rule in favor of the immigration application. It is worth adding that the judges operate in a climate controlled environment, thus the impact of heat is only the discomfort the judges’ feel throughout the day, for example, in commuting to work. For completeness, a recent commentary on this paper by Spamann (2022) suggests that the analysis by Heyes and Saberian may be flawed – the effect of temperature on judge decision might not be present, or is much smaller (only 2% less likely to rule in favor of the immigration application).Â
Temperature, Temperature…
Beyond being uncomfortable, higher temperatures have real impacts on social interactions and work performance. These rising temperatures have real societal costs. But not only is there an aggregate impact (i.e. lower overall economic output), there’s also significant negative redistributive impacts of the high temperatures. People that are wealthier and have access to more resources are able to mitigate the adverse effects of rising temperatures and outperform people that have fewer resources available to them. Heat waves and rising temperatures therefore increasingly impact inequality, meaning people less equipped to deal with high temperatures will have worse economic outcomes.Â
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